The Link Between California's Housing Shortage and Its Political Stability

California, once again, finds itself at the forefront of a national issue - housing. According to the 2023 point-in-time count, the Golden State maintains its decade-long position as the state with the greatest number of unhoused people. Overcrowding has surged, while the number of people without housing continues to trend upward.

The housing crisis in California can be characterized as a lack of consensus about the government's role in addressing housing inequities. Historically, political leaders have believed that homeownership rates shape political beliefs. However, the current crisis has sparked a debate that extends beyond demographic or geographic lines, with disagreements about the government's role in righting the wrongs of history.

The Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention Program (HHAP) was set up by the state of California in 2018 to address housing issues. Yet, affordable housing programs in the state have become more reliant on funding through an unpredictable bond measure system and state budget due to the dismantling of state-funded redevelopment agencies in 2011. This reliance on unpredictable funding sources has made it challenging for the HHAP to consistently address the growing housing needs.

The price of a bottom-tier home in California is 33 percent higher than the price of a midtier home in the rest of the country. A mid-tier California home is 221 percent of the price of an average home in the United States. These high prices have led to stalled homeownership rates for working-class families in California.

The California Big City Mayors group, established by San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria in 2023, is pushing for more state funding for housing. However, the state budget deficits are causing struggles for the group to justify their funding demands. Governor Gavin Newsom supported Proposition 1 in 2023, an initiative aimed at building city shelters, permanent housing, and affordable housing.

The property rights movement, which emerged during the Cold War, was a response by white homeowners to protect their housing values against perceived financial costs of racial integration. Today, 70 percent of all Mexican housing loans are issued by INFONAVIT, indicating a shift in the housing market.

The debate over homeownership connects with a larger set of beliefs about each household, taxpayer, or state resident's responsibility to help right the wrongs of history. A February 2020 study by Redfin found that over half of the 3000 surveyed families stated housing affordability will play a role in their decisions about how they vote for president in November.

Housing will be a significant issue in bond measures this fall, potentially conflicting with rising state debt and voter unwillingness to reallocate state funds. The fact that over 70 percent of the nation's unsheltered population lived in five major cities, all in California in 2023, underscores the urgency of addressing the housing crisis in the state.

As California continues to grapple with its housing crisis, it remains to be seen how the state and its political leaders will navigate this complex and divisive issue. The housing crisis in California is a testament to the need for a comprehensive and sustainable solution that addresses the needs of all Californians.