Trump and Putin's conversation falls short of predicted intensity

In a significant development, American and Russian delegations are set to begin talks in Saudi Arabia this Sunday, with the aim of working out a path towards a potential ceasefire in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This would mark the first attempt in three years to limit combat actions, according to reports.

The talks come after a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. While the name of the US special envoy who reported on the progress of the call remains unidentified, Steve Whitkoff, President Trump's special envoy, emphasized the progress made during the conversation.

Vladimir Putin's key demand following the talks was the complete halt of Western arms and intelligence supplies to Ukraine as a preliminary condition for peace. However, many American commentators view this demand as unrealistic.

For Ukrainians, refraining from strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure could be a significant sacrifice. Yet, both sides recognize that attacks on energy infrastructure will not give them a decisive advantage in the war. Putin finds it easier to halt attacks on energy infrastructure as spring approaches.

If implemented, the ceasefire would not necessarily signal the end of the war and the signing of a peace agreement. According to William Pomeranz from the Washington-based Wilson Center, the agreement only touches upon a plan to halt military actions, not the end of the war and the signing of a peace agreement.

William Pomeranz also believes that Kyiv, which has significant military resources, will not agree to the conditions that Vladimir Putin constantly proposes, conditions that would strip Ukraine of its hopes for a stable, lasting peace.

The path from Putin's agreement to halt strikes on energy infrastructure and a potential moratorium on combat actions in the Black Sea to a full ceasefire is complex and fraught with challenges. Military expert Richard Weitz believes that halting attacks on energy infrastructure could lead to a temporary ceasefire.

A possible ceasefire in the Black Sea could ensure safe navigation for Ukrainian merchant ships. However, William Pomeranz doubts Russia will refrain from attacking Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump may be attempting to persuade Vladimir Putin that concessions can yield benefits in areas such as nuclear non-proliferation, the Middle East, and trade. Trump and his entourage may have decided to broaden the range of topics discussed with Putin to present him with the prospect of normalized relations in certain areas as compensation for potential losses in exchange for signing a peace treaty with Ukraine.

As the talks unfold, the White House will likely continue its attempts to persuade Putin to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine. The White House may continue to follow its strategy, with Ukraine relying on Europe as its primary security guarantor.

Mark Kramer, a researcher at Harvard University's Davis Center, views the results of the phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as confirming Putin's unwillingness to engage in peace talks or reach a ceasefire with Ukraine. Nevertheless, neither decision will lead to a cessation of hostilities along the contact line, but they could potentially pave the way for a process that results in a ceasefire.

The road to peace in Ukraine remains long and challenging, but the potential for a ceasefire offers a glimmer of hope for both sides. The outcome of the talks in Saudi Arabia will be closely watched by the international community, as the world hopes for a resolution to this protracted conflict.