Two Tales of Bears Unearthed: Russian Ventures in Syria and Ukraine
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have become a significant component of Russian warfare, and their importance and proficiency are only growing. This shift in military strategy is particularly evident in the current conflict in Ukraine.
Russian forces have been employing a command-and-control system known as the Strelets system, which reportedly reduces the time it takes for Russian forces to clear ground and commit fires to just eight to ten minutes. This rapid response capability could prove to be a game-changer in the ongoing conflict.
The Russian private military company, Wagner Group, which saw success in Syria, is one of several private military groups being utilised by Russian forces in Ukraine. Others include Antiterror-Orel (now Moran Security Group), Redut-Antiterror, RSB Group, MAR, and ENOT Corp.
Initially, some Western observers anticipated a swift victory for Russian forces in Ukraine. However, the conflict has proven to be more complex, with Russian tactics evolving to include population-centric counterinsurgency methods, such as delivering humanitarian aid, establishing field hospitals, and negotiating neighbourhood-level ceasefires.
In certain areas of Ukraine, such as the southern front and recently occupied portions of the Donbas, Ukrainian resistance forces may soon face Russian counter-irregular warfare (CIW) capabilities. These capabilities, honed in Syria, could pose a significant challenge to the resistance.
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, US irregular warfare practitioners are advised to consider a nuanced understanding of the adaptations in Russian force composition and integrated technology when predicting Russia's response to Ukrainian resistance in occupied zones.
The use of drones for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, a tactic proven effective in Syria, could be increasingly employed against resistance elements in occupied areas of Ukraine. The kill chain for targeting these fighters is expected to be shorter due to the layered effect of strike capability from drones combined with digital command-and-control structures.
Information operations have played a crucial role in the current war in Ukraine, with the Ukrainian military demonstrating a veritable masterclass in information operations. In response, Russian forces are increasingly employing digital mission command platforms in their fight against resistance elements.
However, Russian forces have faced challenges in securing their communications during large-scale combat operations in Ukraine, a lesson learned from their experiences in Syria.
Russian operations in Syria merged a robust advise-and-assist capability with technological advances at the tactical level, establishing a template for future Russian military successes. This template, while demonstrated in Syria, has yet to be fully realised in Ukraine.
The Russian military police concept, which includes deliberately recruited Muslim servicemen to secure humanitarian convoys, has been adopted in occupied Kherson. This strategy, aimed at maintaining control and projecting a benevolent image, could be a significant factor in Russian efforts to secure and hold territory in Ukraine.
Russian losses of men and equipment in Ukraine have been substantial, although the exact numbers are debated. Despite these losses, Russian forces have struggled to achieve their most ambitious objectives in Ukraine.
The future of the conflict in Ukraine remains uncertain, but the adaptations and lessons learned from Russian operations in Syria will undoubtedly play a significant role in shaping Russian tactics moving forward.
