U.S. financial tycoon Ray Dalio connects Bitcoin's surge to an imminent "debt crisis" in America.
In a recent assessment, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, predicting a potential "debt-fueled heart attack" within the next few years. Dalio's warnings come at a time when the U.S. government is spending more money than it's taking in and managing a large amount of debt.
Dalio sees parallels between the current situation and two periods in the 20th century, suggesting that we may be entering the "traumatic last phase" of a "big debt cycle." He believes that most fiat currencies, especially those with large debts, will have problems being effective storeholds of wealth and will go down in value relative to hard currencies.
In light of these concerns, Dalio has urged investors to allocate 15% of their portfolios to Bitcoin and gold as a macroeconomic hedge amid increasing risks in bond and equity markets. He sees cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as resembling hard currencies due to their limited supply, but argues that a central bank is unlikely to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve currency.
Gold, on the other hand, has seen a significant rise in price this year, with its price increasing 38% year-to-date, hitting an all-time high of $3,530 per ounce Wednesday, according to Trading Economics. Dalio links the rise in the price of digital assets and gold to the U.S.'s growing debt burden, suggesting that creditors, including foreign holders of US debt like China and Japan, as well as large institutional investors, may sell U.S. debt due to concerns about its ability to function as a store of value.
The Federal Reserve may have to choose between rising interest rates and a debt default crisis or printing money to buy debt and lower the value of money. Dalio does not view deregulation as a threat to governments' use of fiat currencies, but unhealthy debt levels as eroding the status of currencies like the U.S. dollar.
Bitcoin's price has also seen a significant increase this year, with its price increasing 20% to $112,000 year-to-date, according to CoinGecko. Dalio points to the rise in the prices of gold and cryptocurrency as being influenced by concerns about the debt situations of reserve currency governments.
Dalio's latest assessment of the U.S. economy follows the passage of the GENIUS Act, a federal framework for stablecoins. However, he does not view a decline in the purchasing power of U.S. Treasuries as producing systematic risk for them, if they are well regulated.
In conclusion, Dalio's warnings about the U.S. economy and his recommendations for investors highlight the growing concerns about the country's debt levels and the potential impact on the value of the U.S. dollar. His advice to invest in gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against these risks underscores the growing importance of these assets in the global financial market.
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