Unchecked shift towards renewable energy sources

In a recent analysis, Professor Dr. Manuel Frondel, an expert in energy economics, has highlighted the need for a more realistic approach to Germany's energy transition. The target of increasing electricity consumption to 520 billion kWh per year by 2030, representing less than a 5% increase, may be too ambitious, he suggests.

The continued unfavorable economic outlook, coupled with an increase in the number of electric vehicles and heat pumps, is driving the increase in electricity consumption. However, the rate of growth is not as rapid as initially anticipated, with the number of electric vehicles not increasing as rapidly as expected, and the installation rate of heat pumps significantly below the annual rate required to achieve the target.

Professor Frondel advocates for a shift away from arbitrary planning targets, arguing that the expansion of renewable energy should be based on economic realities. The planned 600 billion kWh of green power for 2030, as outlined in the Renewable Energy Act (EEG 2023), is a third less than what is required, he points out.

The federal government has agreed to a monitoring of the energy transition, which includes assessment of supply security, grid expansion, renewable energies, digitization, and hydrogen ramp-up. The purpose of this monitoring is to align all areas with affordability, cost efficiency, and supply security. However, the article does not provide specific details about the institution or person responsible for this regular control or monitoring.

Critics have pointed to the "meaningless" energy transition in Germany in the wake of China's coal boom. The electricity consumption has not increased as expected, which is a major cause of the ever-new records in the number of hours with negative electricity prices due to the massive expansion of photovoltaics.

Key figures in the energy and climate protection sector, such as Constantin Zerger, head of Energy and Climate Protection at the German Environmental Aid (DUH), and Viviane Raddatz, head of Climate Protection and Energy Policy at WWF Germany, have weighed in on regulatory and transformation issues within the energy sector. They have called for a more pragmatic approach to the energy transition, emphasizing the need for a balance between affordability, cost efficiency, and supply security.

One of the challenges facing the expansion of renewable energy is the lack of network connection capacity, which may delay the construction of electrolysis plants for hydrogen production by several years. Other factors such as slow grid expansion, lack of large-scale energy storage, and declining electricity consumption also suggest that the current pace and scale of renewable energy expansion cannot be maintained.

In conclusion, Professor Frondel's analysis underscores the need for a more measured approach to Germany's energy transition. The focus should be on economic realities, rather than arbitrary targets, to ensure a sustainable and affordable energy future for all.